What: 2023 Asian Cup Qualification
When: June 14th, 2022
Where: Ullaanbaatar, Mongolia
Kickoff: 7:30 AM Jerusalem Time
Previous Encounters:
- 30.05.2014 | Palestine 1:0 Philippines | 2014 Challenge Cup
- 19.03.2012 | Palestine 3:4 Philippines | 2012 Challenge Cup
- 23.03.2011 | Palestine 0:0 Philippines |2012 Challenge Cup qualifiers
Last Time out
Palestine ran out to an impressive 5-0 victory over Yemen.
Philippines left it late but got a winner deep into injury time to emerge 1-0 victors over hosts Mongolia.
A Must Win encounter for the Azkals, a Draw will do for Al-Fida’i
The results in other matches on Saturday did not go the way of Philippines. In group after group, favorites triumphed leaving Group C (Uzbekistan, Thailand) and D (India, Hong Kong) with two teams on six points.
As for the other groups, upsets by Malaysia and Indonesia on Matchday 1 leaves both teams with relatively straightforward tasks to qualify. Malaysia just needs to beat the already eliminated Bangladesh while Team Garuda needs to do the same vs Nepal. Both teams could be on the outside looking in should Turkmenistan or Kuwait upset teams far above them in the FIFA Ranking (Bahrain, Jordan) but that is not relevant to our current discussion.
The Azkals simply have to beat Palestine. A draw would leave them sweating on other results. Palestine and Philippines is the first match of the day so neither side will know fully what they’ll need to do to qualify.
As such the qualifying scenario is as such. For Philippines: A win and you’re in.
For Palestine: A point keeps you at the Group B summit and nails your place at the 2023 Asian Cup. .
Although a loss would mean Palestine no longer controls their own destiny it is hard to imagine a series of results that would eliminate Al-Fida’i. If Indonesia and Malaysia record victories that take all runners up to six points there would still need to be massive goal swings to drop Palestine down the theoretical runner’s up ranking.
Palestine’s 5-0 victory over Yemen was the largest margin of victory in Round 3 of Asian Cup qualification. Their +6 Goal Differential only trails that of Uzbekistan (+7) so unless Palestine suffer heavy defeat on Tuesday they can effectively start planning for next year’s continental showpiece.
Giving Credit where credit is due
It seems that every time Palestine records a big win- there’s a qualifying statement made about the opposition they face. This talking point has become a favorite amongst fans who seem to be either too young or too oblivious to remember what the national team was like 10-15 years ago.
For context, Palestine’s all-time winning percentage in official competition is 32%. They have won 61, drawn 50, and lost 80. Their current goal difference is -11. Wins should be relished and celebrated- not dismissed. I understand the desire and expectation but there is no dismissing the victory over Yemen when no other national team could replicate this margin of victory.
You cannot dismiss the other teams in Group B when they have collected 22 points between them in World Cup qualifying. The unseeded teams in Group A, C, D and E collected 21, 16, 12, and 23 points.
This is not a cupcake group and the disciplined performance of lowly Mongolia in their two games is evidence of that.
Eight years on, much has changed
For Philippines, last month saw them go back to go forward. Thomas Dooley who got the Azkals within one game of the 2015 AFC Asian Cup, and eventually qualified them for the finals four years later, is back.
There are some familiar faces that have hung around over the eight years. Sandro Reyes, Amani Aguidalo, Daisuke Sato provide a veteran presence on what remains a patchwork backline. Closer to goal, Patrick Reichelt was one of the strikers that started in the 1-0 loss to Palestine in Malé and he’s expected to retain his position, despite missing a penalty kick against Mongolia.
In goal, Philippines have the reliable Neil Etheridge who has amassed over 167 starts in the Championship and Premier League with another 97 in League One and Two. Now the national team captain he will be relied on heavily to keep Palestine’s attack at bay.
The England born Goalkeeper played no part in the 2014 Challenge Cup and also missed out on the 2019 AFC Asian Cup Finals as a result of his club commitments.
Change has been a constant for Palestine in ways good and bad over the past eight years. Jamal Mahmoud is long gone- Saeb Jendeya, Ahmed El-Hassan, Abdel Nasser Barakat, Julio Cesar Baldivieso, and Noureddine Ould Ali have taken the helm in between the appointment of current manager Makram Dabboub. The Tunisian was the team’s goalkeeping coach during that tournament and has steadily progressed through the ranks whilst getting his coaching badges.
As for the players- only one current member of the squad was on the pitch that famous night in Malé. Abdelatif Bahdari. He has yet to appear in qualifying and seems unlikely to start now given the stupendous play of Yaser Hamed Mayor and Mohammed Saleh. Musab Al-Battat and Tamer Seyam are now the captains of this team but only had a combined six caps to their name back in 2014.
Can Holtman make the difference?
It seems that Philippines’s hopes rest solely on VfL Bochum’s Gerit Holtman who was on honeymoon only a week ago. The left winger is a quality player and was the difference maker when he came up with an improbable winner deep into injury time against Mongolia.
That said, it seems that there might be problems Holtman cannot solve. Namely, the Philippines defence which has been vulnerable against speedy attackers. Much has been made of how Philippines dominated possession against the likes of Yemen and Mongolia but Yemen used their 37% to generate twice as many attempts on goal (6:3) and Mongolia despite a feeble 23% percent possession but still managed to win 7 corners.
While neither side has seen their defence breached through two matches it is clear that the Azkals are far more vulnerable. Palestine swept Yemen aside and have yet to allow a shot on goal to either of the first two opponents. Mongolia’s lone corner came late in the game and Yemen won only two. Palestine may now be earning plaudits for a free flowing attack but they have been equally adept defensively. The junior member of the backline- Samer Jondi- bounced back from a shaky debut splendidly and recorded an assist on Mohammed Yamin’s goal.
Perhaps Holtman will take up a more advanced and central role- freeing up his position on the wing to someone more defensively minded but if Philippines are going to win they will need the entire team to play better than they have over the first two games.
Prediction
Palestine 2:0 Philippines
I am sure Mohammed Rashid’s phone is flooded with well wishes from Marc Klok and other Indonesia national team players who need Palestine to at least draw this game. Oday Dabbagh has many friends in Kuwait who will be asking for a similar favor. Palestine’s fans are calling for Philippines to be put to the sword so that Yemen could have a chance of advancing. Then there’s the mood in the camp. In the post match press conference, Tamer Seyam and Makram Dabboub were in no mood to celebrate- they knew full well that nothing was guaranteed. They will continue to press despite having lost three players (Mahmoud Wadi, Mohammed Darweesh, and Mohammed Khalil) to injury
Philippines are a side that has improved greatly since the last two teams met but Palestine’s pace of progression has outstripped that of the Azkals- and that will show tomorrow.
