What: 2026 World Cup qualifier
When: June 6th, 2024
Where: Doha, Qatar
Stadium: Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium
Kickoff: 19:00 Jerusalem Time
TV: Our Substack subscribers will receive an email with a link to a live stream on the day of the game. Subscribe here.
Previous Encounters:
17.11.2023 // Lebanon 0:0 Palestine (2026 World Cup qualification)
05.08.2019// Lebanon 0:0 Palestine (2019 WAFF Championship)
10.11.2016 // Lebanon 1:1 Palestine (Friendly)
31.08.2015 // Lebanon 0:0 Palestine (Friendly)
11.12.2012 // Palestine 1:0 Lebanon (2012 WAFF Championship)
20.07.1998 // Lebanon 3:1 Palestine (1998 Arab Cup qualification)
Palestine on the Brink
Win or draw and Palestine advance to the Third Round of FIFA World Cup qualification. Given all that has happened over the past eight months the majority of Palestine supporters would have gladly taken this scenario at the start of the campaign.
It will be a historic first for Palestine who would be amongst 18 nations vying for eight or nine places at the North American World Cup. In their way is Lebanon who are trying to avoid joining the field of 26 vanquished nations.
Bar encounters in the 20th Century, this fixture has never elicited many goals. The first encounter of qualifying ended in a goalless draw- the most common scoreline in six official matches. When Palestine met Lebanon in Beirut, in their first official match under the umbrella of FIFA, there were four goals scored. Since, a grand total of three of five games.
That said, Lebanon cannot play for a draw- they must win on Thursday to have any chance of advancing.
Lebanon have yet to win under Radulovic and have only scored one goal- Bassel Jradi’s wonder strike vs Tajikistan (Jradi has been ruled out with an injury). The Montenegrin has also kept his team on a leash emphasizing defensive solidity with three central defenders. It remains to be seen if there will be a change in shape. In 20 out of 32 games at his previous post as manager of Montenegro, Radulovic deployed a four man back line.
In his first go-around as Lebanon Manager a four man back line was a more common occurrence and he ditched his preferred formation against Korea DPR in a decisive group stage game at the 2019 Asian Cup when the Cedars needed to win and make up the goal difference between them and other third place sides.
WATCH: VIDEO PREVIEW WITH FA LEBANON
Neighbors on two different trajectories
Even the most ardent Lebanon supporter will admit that The Cedars are now longer in the ascendancy. This team peaked in 2022 and there has been little in the way of rejuvenation. Three managers in the space of four months last year did not help matters.
They also arguably turned to the wrong former manager given that Ivan Hasek now leads his native Czechia.
Most damning of all is the personnel and tactics on offer. Lebanon have had trouble scoring and the problem now manifests itself against opponents they should be beating.
If Lebanon is to get a result it will need to tap into the experience of the team and the fact that many in the side were part of Al-Ahed’s run to the 2024 AFC Cup Final. Goalkeeper Mostafa Matar, defender Khalil Khamis, and defensive midfielder Walid Shour could hold the key to stopping Palestine. They are also all under 30 years of age meaning they will be part of the teams immediate future should they trigger a rebuild.
Palestine are fresh off of their most important footballing achievement to date- qualifying for the knockout stages of an AFC Asian Cup. Their performances in Qatar show that the team is not that far off from competing with Asia’s bourgeois teams. There has also been a concerted effort to introduce new players to a solid core that was put together during the tail end of the 2018/19 cycle.
The team’s three captains are automatic selections- right back Musab Al-Battat, winger Tamer Seyam, and goalkeeper Rami Hamadi. They are also the only surefire starters over the age of 30. Oday Dabbagh (25) is the team’s talisman in attack. The rest of the team has changed considerably since successfully qualifying for the 2023 AFC Asian Cup two years ago.
Michel Termanini has become an integral piece of the team after getting recalled in March 2023 for the first time in four and a half years. Ataa Jaber made his debut in June 2023 and has the look of a player that has played 70 times (not seven) for the national team. Amid Mahajna (suspended for this game) has proven a brilliant addition given his performances in midfield and defence. Camilo Saldaña has given the team another option at the troubled left back position.
Now the class of 2024 is ready to contribute. Further up the pitch there is Moustafa Zeidan who gives Palestine a true creative force in midfield. In attack, Palestine can now turn to Al-Ahly’s Wessam Abou Ali and AIK’s Omar Faraj, an upgrade over the strikers they started the campaign with.
In spite of all this, expect this game to be much like the first encounter between the two sides- a cagey affair. Lebanon knows how to make life difficult for their opponents and have a tendency to spring surprises when you least expect it. Palestine has to score early and kill off the game- failure to do so will allow Lebanon to grow in confidence and could derail Palestine’s path to the next round of World Cup qualification.
