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What: 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier
When: Tuesday, November 19th, 2024
Where: Amman, Jordan | Amman International Stadium
Kickoff: 1600 Jerusalem Time
TV/Streaming: Subscribe to Football Palestine on Substack (Free) to receive a streaming link to your inbox on hour before kickoff
Previous Encounters:
05.09.2024 | Korea Republic 0:0 Palestine | 2026 World Cup Qualifier
Palestine look to regress to the mean
Statistically speaking reality has not been kind to Palestine. In their last three encounters against Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman they created more chances than their opposition but have only a single point to show for it. In two of the three matches Al-Fida’i were held scoreless.
It only gets more bizarre. Palestine have created more dangerous chances during this campaign than Iraq who sit in second place on eight points.
These anomalies are common in football, a low scoring sport but over ten games things should regress from a statistical outlier to something resembling normality. A team headlined by Al-Ahly’s goal scoring machine and an all-time top goalscorer for the national team should produce goals.
Crucially, the team needs to believe that if they keep working hard and shooting that the goals will come. After another deflating defeat the worry is that frustration might get the better of the side. It will be up to the coaching staff and the veterans to make sure that does not happen.
Korea sailing to an 11th straight World Cup finals
For all the drama and the impending sense of doom surrounding the Korean national team, matters on the pitch have been downright serene. Since being held to a draw by Palestine on MD1, Korea has uncorked four straight victories- including road wins in Oman, Jordan, and Kuwait all while averaging nearly three goals a game.
For the Taeguk warriors a win in Amman on Tuesday would allow Hong Myung-Bo to use the final to use games in 2025- three of which are at home- to experiment.
There are questions that remain to be answered for Korea- the #6 position next to Hwang In-beom has been something of a revolving door. The defensive personnel has also been shuffled around with Kim Min-jae and Seol Yong-woo the only mainstays.
Since the last time they faced Palestine, Korea has found a striker in Se-hun Oh, the J-League based 25 year old has scored against Iraq and Kuwait and will most likely get a third straight start.
On the face of it, in spite of the improved fluidity in attack Korea still struggle to keep clean sheets- having only held Jordan scoreless in the last four games.
4-4-2 Forever
With no alternate plan engaged against the weaker teams in the group, do not expect Makram Daboub to change his tune now. Palestine’s excellent deployment of the 4-4-2 in a defensive posture is what allowed the team to steal a point on the road.
Palestine will be able to deploy the same starting eleven that took to the pitch in Seoul two and a half months ago. The question is whether or not that move would be a wise choice.
Jonathan was a surprise starter in that game and executed his orders marvellously in the defensive sense. That won him starts against Jordan and Kuwait where he looked very much out of place in a different context.
One issue with the 4-4-2 formation is that Palestine has very few players that are good in 1v1 situations on the wing. A decade ago, Palestine could trot out Ismail Amour and Imad Zatara and get instantaneous offensive movements in isolation. Tamer Seyam can provide some of that but there really is no one else on the roster that can.
This shortage led to the farcical deployment of Oday Kharoub as a winger against Oman. Ironically, that might not be the worst idea against a side like Korea and is definitely one of the options if Jonathan is not fielded. Makram Daboub could of course deploy Moustafa Zeidan out of position as well.
Back in September, Amid Mahajneh was suspended and Mohammed Saleh was taking in the sights in Doha so Yaser Hamed started. It is unlikely Hamed returns to the starting lineup but deploying Saleh would be an unmitigated disaster given his error prone nature.
If Palestine are to get anything from this game they will need to be astute in their pressing particularly of Hwang In-beom who assisted two of Korea’s goals on Thursday. In-beom is the player most likely to play a line breaking pass and if Korea cannot do that they will be stuck trying to pass the ball sideways to find a gap in Palestine’s two banks of four.
Crunching the Numbers
In all likelihood, Palestine will need to find a way to amass 10 points in the remaining five games in order to advance to Round 4 of World Cup qualification. The final two games against Kuwait and Oman are must-wins meaning that Palestine have to collect four points from the next three matches.
If Palestine can nick another point from Korea it would throw them a lifeline heading into 2025. A win would change the dynamic of the group.
Predicted Starting XI:
Palestine (4-4-2): Rami Hamadi, Musab Al-Battat, Milad Termanini, Amid Mahajneh, Camilo Saldaña; Tamer Seyam, Ataa Jaber, Odai Kharoub, Moustafa Zeidan; Oday Dabbagh, Wessam Abou Ali
Korea Republic (4-2-3-1): Jo Hyeon-Woo, Seol Yong-woo, Cho Yu-min, Kim Min-jae, Lee Myong-jae; Hwang In-beom, Park Yong-woo; Son Heung-min, Lee Jae-sung, Lee Kang-in; Oh Se-hun
