Palestine could enter uncharted territory next week with a win or draw when they host Lebanon on neutral ground. Al-Fida’i has a legitimate shot at qualifying for the final group phase of World Cup qualification for the first time in its history.
The team had promising starts to the 2006 and 2022 campaigns only to fall short. The last time Palestine was still alive with two match days to go in qualification was for the 2018 edition. A loss to UAE snuffed out their chances with a game left to play in Round 2.
No matter what the result against Lebanon- Palestine will be alive on the final match day. THe qualifying scenario for Palestine is straight forward. Collect one point from the remaining two games. With a five point gap between Palestine and Lebanon qualification could still be secured in the event Lebanon fails to win both their games.
Remaining mathematically alive alongside 17 other Asian nations while the bulk of the continent’s 28 teams are eliminated would be a huge breakthrough for Palestine.
Palestine has hovered around 15th in Asia for the entirety of Daboub’s tenure and for most of the Ould Ali era as well. The Asian Cup performance further cemented Palestine’s status in the top third of Asian Teams. That said, Asia’s elite has always been determined by the teams who advance the furthest in World Cup qualification.
Palestine will never really be considered a team of crashing Asia’s elite until they overcome the hurdle of advancing to the Third Round.
It would also cement Makram Daboub’s legacy as one of the best- if not the best- manager in Palestine’s history.
Daboub has done what only two other managers have done before him- qualify for an Asian Cup finals. In collecting four points at the group stage and advancing to the knockout rounds for the first time ever, Daboub broke new frontiers.
Interestingly enough, the three managers to successfully qualify Palestine to the 2015, 2019, and 2023 AFC Asian Cups have nearly identical records. All three have played 13 competitive fixtures and all three have won eight games.
JAMAL MAHMOUD’S RECORD IN COMPETITIVE MATCHES (2011-2014)
ABDEL NASSER BARAKAT’S RECORD IN COMPETITIVE MATCHES (2015-2017)
MAKRAM DABOUB’S RECORD IN COMPETITIVE MATCHES (2021-Present)
A win for Daboub in a fortnight’s time would make him the manager with the highest winning percentage breaking the current three way tie between the Tunisian, Barakat and Mahmoud (61%). The Tunisian himself lacks a real signature win; there have been wins against teams Palestine have been expected to beat but none against teams at or above Palestine’s level.
Jamal Mahmoud beat a stacked Philippines side that had eight European based players plying their trade in Denmark, Switzerland, Spain, Holland, and England.
Abdel Nasser Barakat beat Oman in a thrilling 2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifier, a match that featured Ali Al-Habsi’s net being pierced twice inside the opening twenty minutes.
Daboub can hang his hat on getting the job done at the 2023 Asian Cup against Hong Kong but the team’s best performance was arguably the 1-1 draw vs. UAE- a team considered to be amongst Asia’s elite.
In spite of the fact that Lebanon’s Asian Cup record is not as impressive as Palestine’s, they are held in higher regard on the continent. This is precisely because of what they have done in World Cup qualifying, reaching the Third Round for the 2014 and 2022 World Cup campaigns.
The Cedars were considered to be out of their depth during the last qualifying campaign- capable of frustrating opponents but not hurting them. A pair of 0-0 draws vs. Iraq and UAE was all they had to show for their efforts through three match days but when faced with a must-win game against their closest rivals Lebanon found another level. A 3-2 win vs Syria led to a famous what-if moment in Lebanese football against Iran.
The Cedars led 1-0 in that match only for an unlikely comeback to spoil their party deep into injury time.
It is because of those types of gutsy performances that Lebanon was picked by nearly every analyst to advance ahead of Palestine.
Given the trajectory and the five point gap between the teams the so-called experts will be backing Palestine. Not that any of that matters. Lebanon will be no pushovers and it will be imperative that the team be ready to battle. History awaits a manager and a generation widely spoken about as the best ever. Qualification to the Third Round would be a fitting coronation.
