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Football is a funny game. Fans have an ever increasing list of demands. Managers are asked to win and when victories are delivered in a utilitarian style they are then asked to entertain in a flashy style. Players can go from being glorified to vilified in an instant. It is a fickle business.
Fans of Al-Fida’i are no different. A generation ago, wins were a rarity, style an afterthought, and everyone was mostly happy to see the team play and compete.
Success in recruiting players from the diaspora raised expectations. So did consistent league play in Palestine. Most of all though, qualifying for the AFC Asian Cup has raised the ceiling and the floor.
It also does not help when Palestine’s neighbors have been able to achieve success while Al-Fida’i have had to wait for a breakthrough to come.
Lebanon may have qualified for fewer Asian Cups but they got a win against Korea DPR at the last tournament and have made two trips to the Third Round of World Cup qualification.
Syria has never gotten out of the group stages at an Asian Cup but were in the Third Round of World Cup qualification for the last two editions.
Jordan’s success stings the most. An excellent administration has allowed the team to punch above their weight and every time the Asian Cup rolls around they clock wins and have upset some of Asia’s biggest sides.
Jordan are that goody-two-shoes cousin you have that your mother brings up in conversation. The paragon of what you should be doing. They also have had a hand in denying Palestine glory at the 2019 AFC Asian Cup and the 2021 FIFA Arab Cup.
The hope is the narrative will change at the 2023 AFC Asian Cup. A win-and-you’re-in scenario for the third time in five years. At least this time they will not have to beat their neighbours to seal a place in the knockouts.
At the last Asian Cup the team was undone by Noureddine Ould Ali’s tactics. The ultra-defensive approach could not produce a goal and the two chances presented to Oday Dabbagh and Mahmoud Wadi went begging. Amr Shafei went on a walkabout, lost possession and was not punished for it as well.
Two years later at the FIFA Arab Cup. Palestine once again came into the final group stage match on one point needing a win. The team had failed to see out the game against Saudi Arabia and settled for a 1-1 draw and was shorn of several first team players.
Jordan jumped out to a 2-0 lead but whethered the mother of all storms. The scored was 2-1 at the break and an equalizer should have been produced early in the second half only for Khaled Salem to shoot wide after rounding the goalkeeper. Later in the game, Tamer Seyam scored from the aformentioned player’s cross but VAR showed his backside was offside. Moments later a freak own goal was scored when a shot balooned off of Yaser Hamed Mayor’s back and into Amr Kaddoura’s net.
History Awaits
All of the above is merely trivia. History that has been written and cannot change but it is not necessarily this team’s destiny. Only Amr Kaddoura, Tamer Seyam, Mohammed Saleh, and Mohammed Rashid were part of all three squads.
This a new team and while it may have been unlucky thus far, it has to believe that luck will revert to the mean. If Palestine can beat Hong Kong then they are virtually assured of a place in the knockout round.
Hong Kong will not be easy— but as the cliche goes there are no easy games at the Asian Cup. In Palestine’s favor is the fact that Hong Kong will have no choice but to open up and get the win that could help them advance to the Round of 16.
If Palestine are prepared for Hong Kong’s pressing and are patient they will have the opportunity to hammer their defence. A win is probable but it does not rule out the possibility of another result.
Permutations
A win would put Palestine on four points. This will be good for at least third place in Group C. Second place is only a possibility if UAE loses to Iran in the other Group C Match.
A five goal swing would be required to account for the goal difference. As goals scored is the next tiebreaker Palestine would need to score twice. Should Iran win 3-0 and Palestine register a 2-0 win over Hong Kong Palestine will have the edge over UAE due to fair play points.
Palestine have collected seven yellow cards. The Emiratis have collected four, a direct red, and an addition sending off as a result of Paulo Bento being
As it stands, Palestine has the edge over UAE on fair play points -7 to -9.
If Palestine advances as the best third place team there is a 90 percent chance that they play Qatar in the Round of 16. The only permutation that will result in them facing Australia/Uzbekistan is should a third place team from Group A (China/Lebanon/Tajikistan) and Group D (Japan/Indonesia) fail to qualify.
A second place finish means they will face one of China, Lebanon or Tajikistan in the Round of 16.
