In the aftermath of Palestine’s 2-2 draw with Kuwait, Football Palestine posed a question to its Twitter followers- was the result which came down a man and down a goal the case of one point won? or two points lost?
Two thirds of respondents saw it as the latter. So which is it- really?
Direct Qualification is not on the cards. In all honesty was it ever a distinct possibility? Without home field advantage you simply cannot expect this Palestine team to turn losses into draws and draws into wins. There is something about that plastic pitch in Jerusalem, super close to throngs of fans that can unsettle teams.
I have seen first hand how that pitch works wonders. In 2017, Oman were left reeling after twenty minutes- down two goals, punch drunk, and overwhelmed by the cheers of the fans. The stadium might have been half empty but every single person there was screaming their lungs out.
There is a reason why Palestine have never lost an official match on their home pitch. Not being able to bank on that form is a huge disadvantage. Perhaps only Korea could maintain their form without playing at home. All the other Arab teams in the group would be similarly hindered.
Everyone knew this was most likely going to be the case going into Round 3. Perhaps the positive result in Seoul changed expectations but we now know barring Palestine winning five of their final six matches- they will not finish in the top two positions.
This is not a reflection of the team’s quality, ability, or depth. It is a reflection of the unique conditions Palestine is playing under. Take away any team’s home field, factor in the mental stress of a year long war and genocide, and pause all footballing activity in the country and you will see even the strongest teams struggle. Even perennial participants at World Cup finals struggle on the road. Spain lost three out of four away qualifiers during the 2022 cycle. The United States picked up one away win- against lowly Honduras. Both teams qualified for the Round of 16 in Qatar.
Injuries have also played an important factor. Palestine have been without key players for several games during this qualification campaign. The injuries started to pile immediately after the Korea game. Tamer Seyam and Rami Hamadi fell victim to a horrible training pitch in Malaysia. That cost them games against Jordan and Iraq and their absence was acutely felt. In the last window, Palestine lost Ataa Jaber (for personal reasons), Moustafa Zeidan limped off with an injury against Iraq in the first half and missed the Kuwait game.
Against Kuwait, Musab Al-Battat picked up an injury in the first minute of the match. Palestine have also been on the receiving end of some soft yellow cards and their most reliable defender- Milad Termanini sat out the Kuwait game due to card accumulation. Out of the 18 Asian teams still vying for a place at the World Cup- none have had to juggle as many injuries as Palestine. The injuries to Rami Hamadi and Amr Kaddoura were the key reason Palestine failed to pick up points against Jordan and Iraq.
Resilient performances have been a mainstay of this team throughout the past year. Lady luck has not smiled on Palestine who have picked up five draws in 14 competitive matches. They absolutely deserved to beat Lebanon (twice), UAE, and Kuwait only for superb goalkeeping and horrible officiating to get in their way.
In international football, where matches are few and far between, avoiding defeat is paramount. Those results might not look sexy on paper but they were the results that catapulted Palestine into the knockout stages of the Asian Cup and to the Third Round of World Cup qualification for the first time.
Things must change and Palestine will still have to deal with absences (Tamer Seyam and Camilo Saldaña are suspended for the Oman match) that said they should be boosted by the presence of Milad Termanini, Ataa Jaber, Musab Al-Battat and Moustafa Zeidan. The Oman game is a must-win and Palestine are fortunate to only be a point out of fourth place after Jordan shellacked Oman 4-0 on MD4.
Makram Daboub has ample evidence as to what works and what does not work and many are justifiably clamouring for the end of the 4-4-2. While the system has harnessed the crossing ability of Musab Al-Battat and Tamer Seyam it simply does not work if other personnel are used. Palestine can also be left exposed to a numerical disadvantage in midfield and their two best players- Oday Dabbagh and Wessam Abou Ali- are often left isolated from the rest of the team.
Oman and Palestine met in Muscat in a friendly September 2023 with the match ending in a 2-1 victory to the hosts. There should be no secret as to how Oman want to play and a delicate balance between pressing and dropping back will need to be achieved to exploit the weakness of Al-Ahmar and to guard against their threat on the counter. Oman can be beaten but it is up to both the coach and the players to seize this opportunity to grab fourth place and not let go.
After four match days, it has become clear that the race for fourth place will be an attritional slug fest. Palestine’s best quality is that the team does not know when it has been beaten. Al-Fida’i were not favoured to make it out of Round 2, they were presumed to be one of the weakest teams at the Asian Cup after losing 4-1 to Iran, and many thought a 5-0 dead rubber loss to Australia was indicative of the team’s level only for the team to draw 0-0 against Korea Republic.
Zaid Qunbar’s equaliser against Kuwait was the second time in the campaign that Palestine scored late to rescue points. Even more remarkable Palestine were reduced to ten men on both occasions before scoring. It might not be pretty but the intangibles and spirit Palestine possess could prove to be the difference in Round 3.
