What: 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier
When: Tuesday, March 25th, 2025
Where: Amman, Jordan | Amman International Stadium
Kickoff: 20:15 Jerusalem Time
TV/Streaming: Subscribe to Football Palestine onSubstack to receive a streaming link to your inbox one hour before kickoff.
Previous Encounters:
07.09.1965: Iraq 1:1 Palestine (1965 Pan Arab Games)*
01.09.2002: Iraq 2:0 Palestine (2002 WAFF Championship)
31.03.2004: Palestine 1:1 Iraq (2006 World Cup qualifier)
16.11.2004: Iraq 4:1 Palestine (2006 World Cup qualifier)
01.12.2005: Iraq 4:0 Palestine (2005 West Asian Games)
17.08.2006: Palestine 0:3 Iraq (2007 Asian Cup qualifier)
06.09.2006: Palestine 2:2 Iraq (2007 Asian Cup qualifier)
18.06.2007: Palestine 0:1 Iraq (2007 WAFF Championship)
10.07.2009: Iraq 3:0 Palestine (Friendly)
13.07.2009: Iraq 4:0 Palestine (Friendly)
29.09.2010: Iraq 3:0 Palestine (2010 WAFF Championship)
20.01.2015: Iraq 2:0 Palestine (2015 Asian Cup)
08.05.2018: Iraq 0:0 Palestine (Friendly)
04.08.2018: Palestine 0:3 Iraq (Friendly)
28.12.2018:Iraq 1:0 Palestine (Friendly)
02.08.2019: Iraq 1:2 Palestine (2019 WAFF Championship)
10.10.2024: Iraq 1:0 Palestine (2026 World Cup qualifier)
Palestine’s record over 18 games (0-4-14)
Do or Die
Palestine’s national team knew that their path to a World Cup playoff necessitated at least one win in March. Following the gut punch suffered against Jordan the team must pick themselves up.
The history is daunting. Palestine have never beaten Iraq- a run of 18 official games have only generated a paltry four draws. The gap has closed somewhat over the years but there is not a single opponent in Asia that has dominated Al-Fida’i as much as the Lions of Mesopotamia have.
While a draw would not mathematically eliminate Palestine the path to get to the playoff would not only depend on sweeping Kuwait and Oman in June but also the results of Kuwait and Oman’s games.
Even if Palestine do register a historic victory, Oman could eliminate Palestine before the final match day by collecting six points from their next two games against Kuwait and Jordan.
Conspiracy!
As we covered before, Iraq was hellbent on not playing Palestine in Amman. When offered the opportunity to play in Jerusalem instead, that option was also turned down.
A popular narrative started forming on Iraqi social media accusing Palestine and Jordan of being in cahoots. The theory is that Palestine would prefer Jordan (their biggest footballing rival) to qualify at the expense of Iraq and that fans of Jordan would come out in force to support Palestine.
All this flies in the face of reality as Palestine has never been able to count on the official support of any ultras group in the Kingdom when it has played in Amman before. Moreover, the attendance of Palestine’s last home game here was a paltry 2,405.
Mohammed Saleh’s atrocious performance on Thursday night has only given more strength to these theories.
Issues for Iraq
Whatever enthusiasm there was for Jesus Casas in 2023 and 2024 has all but dissipated. The Spaniard got off to a good start with the Iraqi national team by leading them to a Gulf Cup on home soil just months after taking the post.
A year later, Iraq lit up the Asian Cup- registering a famous upset of Japan in the Group Stage and were eliminated from the tournament in controversial circumstances.
Since then, things have become stale and predictable. There is an incredible over reliance on Aymen Hussein to score goals and a commitment to a slow build up play. That has served Iraq well in the first six games but unraveled very quickly at the Gulf Cup over the winter.
A slow back line and uncertainty at the goalkeeper position are two glaring weaknesses that many an Iraqi supporter would admit to.
It is due to those weaknesses that Casas has been reluctant to open things up. A 4-2-3-1 shields slow defenders and the quality of Iraq’s midfielders means they can control the flow of games.
It was expected that Iraq could go back to the playbook against feeble Kuwait and cruise to victory in Basra. A raucous crowd should have made things easier for the home team but there was very little end product.
The decision to play Mohanad Ali and Aymen Hussein simply did not work as both became ever more isolated from their teammates. Ali simply could not get involved in the game and that meant Ali Jassim and Peter Gwargis saw less of the ball than they should.
Ali was hooked for Bayesh at halftime and play improved with Bayesh generating more than three times the passes and three times to touches. He also popped up with an equalizing goal on the last kick of the game.
That said, Iraq were bereft of ideas until they ditched their game plan and started pumping balls forward. Kuwait, in a bout of over caution, kept retreating and two goals in injury time gave Iraq an ill-deserved point.
It is unclear what Casas will do to remedy the situation against Palestine. His Plan A was so ineffective that his side generated a meager four total shots in the first half against Kuwait. When Iraq went in desperation mode in the second half they generated 14 shots. Ten of which came after the team was down 2-0- a whopping seven were in injury time.
Iraq will be missing a key player in Merchas Doski due to card accumulation.
Palestine need to find the right combination
Palestine have no shortage of attacking talent at their disposal so it is a little perplexing to see that Al-Fida’i have managed a meager five goals in seven games in the Third Round.
Even in Round Two, the team could only score against Bangladesh. If Palestine are going to do the impossible they need to find a way to generate shots for Wessam Abou Ali and Oday Dabbagh. The team also needs to be better in transition.
Against Jordan, the product from open play was stymied by a Jordanian press that harassed Ataa Jaber. The only reliable outlet was Ahmed Taha and there was precious little action in the middle of the attacking third to exploit.
The big question is whether this is an issue of personnel or simply the result of trying to shoehorn Dabbagh and Abou Ali into the same lineup. Things didn’t work out under Makram Daboub when the two played in a 4-4-2 and it was not any better against Jordan in a 4-2-3-1 with Oday Dabbagh in the hole.
There is a way to accommodate both star players but that will most likely mean Dabbagh playing on the right hand side of a 4-3-3.
That tactic worked brilliantly during Asian Cup qualification for the 2023 tournament. With Dabbagh wreaking havoc as Mahmoud Wadi and Saleh Chihadeh opened up spaces for him to drift into.
If a change in formation is not forthcoming then a change in personnel is needed. Dabbagh cannot and should not counted on to play as a #10.
There are other options in the squad that could be a better fit. Adam Kaied was a breath of fresh air when he came on and was constantly cutting inside and combining with players.
The good news for Palestine is that they have a full slate of options and with Amid Mahajna back the defense should be far sturdier.
Ehab Abu Jazar understands the magnitude of the occasion and said as much in the post match press conference “We came here to win this is why we played with four forwards”
Against Iraq he will have no other option.
