What: 2023 Asian Cup Qualification
When: June 8th, 2022
Where: Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Kickoff: 12 PM Jerusalem Time
Previous Encounters:
None
The Great Unknown
Palestine joined the AFC and FIFA in 1998 and since then they have been slowly working their way through the 45 Member Associations. Al-Fida’i have played opponents big and small, locking horns with giants like Japan and Australia at the Asian Cup Finals while also dispatching of minnows such as Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, and Bhutan over their 24 years as fully fledged FIFA Members.
The sides that have eluded Palestine at senior level in that time span are: Korea Republic, Brunei, Macau, and the geographic behemoth that is Mongolia.
Size rarely ever correlates with football ability and with a population of just 3.5 million, Mongolia is the smallest nation in the group by that metric. They are also the only team in the group not to have appeared at the finals of an AFC Asian Cup with Yemen and Philippines having made their debut at the last edition in 2019.
The question the other three teams will have is whether Mongolia’s status as hosts of the group might change the projected outcomes. Football Rankings has Mongolia as odds on favorite to finish bottom of the group (68%) and gives them only a 5% chance of qualifying to the 2023 Asian Cup.
A close reading of their home matches during World Cup qualification gives an idea of how Mongolia might just spring an upset. The team qualified for the group stage by virtue of a 2-0 home win vs. Brunei (they lost the away leg 2-1) and then upset Myanmar at home 1-0 on Matchday 1.
The Blue Wolves would not taste victory for two years following that opening day win. Mongolia beat a COVID ravaged Kyrgyzstan side 1-0 recovering brilliantly from a 14-0 schellacking at the hands of Japan two months previously. That result cost the Kyrgyz a place in Round 3 of World Cup qualifying. It was not that much of a surprise either given the fact that the Kyrgyz were made to work in the first match between the two sides (2-1).
The other match hosted in Ulaanbataar saw Tajikistan record a narrow 1-0 win courtesy of an 81st minute goal.
The key takeaway here? Palestine should expect to win but a walkover is by no means guaranteed. Fans who want to see Palestine set a new record margin of victory might be in for a disappointment.
How will Mongolia Line Up?
Mongolia are on their fourth coach in just two years having contested a meager five games in that timespan. Otsuka Ichiro is the man at the helm and his coaching experience is unique to say the least having managed Singapore’s Albirex Nagata before embarking on a 10 year coaching career at Toyama Daiichi High School.
The Japanese tactician oversaw the team in two friendlies earlier this year- a 1-0 loss to Laos and and a 0-0 draw against Bangladesh. Ichiro’s appointment came to be because his compatriot Shuichi Mase had to resign his post to undergo surgical procedures on his eye. Mase lead the team in their famous win against Kyrgyzstan but his deteriorating health forced him to step aside in a blow for the team and its fans.
With the next World Cup qualification cycle fast approaching there is a concerted effort to build a solid foundation of players that can contribute their best football for the next four years. In their 1-0 loss to Laos only two players over the age of 26 featured in the starting lineup- captain Tsend-Ayush Khurelbataar (32) and Toglor Monkh-Erdene (31).
Mongolia lineup in a 4-1-4-1 formation in their first two friendlies and it should come as no surprise that the emphasis is on defensive solidity and organization. Mongolia will drop their captain- the aforementioned Khurelbataar- into the backline when out of possession. The midfield and the striker will also drop back to help out. In attack, there’s an emphasis on quick transitions but that often devolves into a hit and hope approach.
Mongolia is expected to draw exclusively from the local leagues to fill its ranks. The possible notable exception might come in the form of Ganbayar Ganbold, the 22 year old attacking midfielder who plies his trade in the Hungarian second tier.
The aim for Mongolia in their match against Palestine will be simple- constrict space and hope the pressure of not scoring an opener gets to the opponent.
Palestine to experiment?
Following a subpar Arab Cup campaign with a squad shorn of many of its stars, Makram Dabboub has rung in the changes. There are four uncapped players in the Asian Cup qualifying squad. Baraa Kharoub is the latest goalkeeper to audition for the role of Rami Hamadi’s understudy.
Former Chile U19 player, Nicolas Zédan has completed his nationality switch and will provide the Tunisian tactician with another option in attack. Edgardo Abdala’s son- Joqauin- is also training in Istanbul with the national side for the first time.
With the continued ostracization of Abdallah Jaber by the PFA- Samer Jundi has been called up to solve Palestine’s issues at left back.
There are five center backs in the side. Abdelatif Bahdari has yet to retire and he is joined by the foreign based trio of Yaser Hamed Mayor, Mohammed Saleh, and Michel Termanini (update: Termanini has since withdrawn from the squad). Yazan Iwaiwi is also included.
There are three right backs in the side- Musab Al-Battat, Musa Farawi, and Abdelsalam Salame.
These defensive decisions might point to the possible deployment of a 3-4-3 line up. A relatively low stakes game against Mongolia affords the coaching staff an opportunity to further test it. Dabboub used the 3-4-3 in a friendly against Bangladesh last year but with a squad shorn of a true #9 things didn’t really click in the first half of a 2-0 win.
With the players at Dabboub’s disposal a 3-4-3 would make up for the lack of a natural #10 to plug into a 4-2-3-1 and would also solve the problem of trying to shoehorn Abu Warda into a three man midfield for creative purposes.
As such, Palestine can depend on its double pivot of Mohammed Rahsid and Mohammed Yamin (56 combined caps) whilst also calling on the veteran experience of Mohammed Darweesh (46 caps) in reserve. Odai Kharoub and rookie Joaquín Abdala provide other viable options in the center of the park.
Musab Al-Battat and Samer Jondi would be the wing backs, with more of the play being channeled through the right side. The depth at center back would allow for Abdelatif Bahdari to be rotated out of the squad.
The purpose of such a line-up would be to create 1v1 isolation for Palestine’s attacking players- especially Oday Dabbagh. A rampaging full-back would create overloads that could overwhelm the Mongolian defence and if that happens there should be plenty of service for whomever (Mahmoud Wadi or Saleh Chihadeh) plays up top.
Prediction: Palestine 4 Mongolia 0
